The federal Liberals continue to lead while Conservatives fall to historic lows and the NDP is on the upswing, according to a trio of recent polls.
Polls released in recent days from Abacus, Nanos and IPSOS all show the Liberals at 37 or 38 per cent, the Conservatives at 24 or 25 per cent and the NDP at 20 per cent.
Moves by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose Liberals currently hold a minority of seats in the House of Commons, suggest he will call early elections this fall, long before the scheduled date in 2023.
The fall in Conservative support has been particularly steep in Western Canada. Abacus data shows Conservatives down a massive 31 points in Alberta and 13 points in British Columbia. In the 2019 elections, Conservatives received 64 per cent support in Saskatchewan and 45 per cent in Manitoba. Across both provinces, Abacus suggests Conservatives now have only 38 per cent support.
The federal Conservative declines mirror dropping support for provincial Conservative governments in Alberta, Manitoba and, to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan. Weakness is Western Canada suggests the Conservative campaign will focus on minimizing incumbent losses in previous strongholds.
NDP support across the west continues to rise, supported by a popular government in British Columbia and strong backing for opposition NDP provincial parties. Since the last election, NDP support is up eight points in both B.C. and Alberta, and now holds 27 per cent support in Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined. In 2019, the NDP received 20 and 21 per cent in the latter two provinces.
Seeking to take advantage of falling Conservative support, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is touring Western Canada, hoping to pick up seats in key urban areas and the BC interior.
The governing Liberals are up six points in B.C., eight points in Alberta and have 26 per cent support in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In 2019, they held 12 and 27 per cent, respectively, in the two provinces.